Modeling of groundwater flow and water use for San Luis Potosí Valley aquifer system

Abstract

"Land use changes are currently one of the indisputable factors in the alteration of processes and cycles of the aquifer system in the San Luis Potosí Valley. Due to its importance, is considered indispensable to investigate this detrimental factor of aquifers. The aim of this research is to use a numerical flow model to analyze the impact that land use changes have had on the aquifer. A finite differences numerical model was adapted to the size and hydrological properties of the aquifer system. It consisted of a regular grid with 30 columns and 34 rows with constant spacing of 1000 meters. It has two layers; the first includes the shallow aquifer and the second, the deep aquifer. The initial hydraulic head of the model corresponds to 1986 and was verified for 1995 and 2007. The model shows the development of a drawdown cone (central valley) extending toward the industrial area (southern valley). Piezometric water levels revealed a decrease of 0.6 to 1.6 meters annually during a period from 1977 to 2007. This work demonstrates that it is the consequence of land use changes and of the incessant overall decline in groundwater reserves. Based on the flow model, population growth projections and water use change, the calculated predictions indicate that by 2021, the total established volume of 136 Mm3/year for consume will be reached. The flow model of the San Luis Potosí Valley aquifer system shows a clear effect of the risks associated with aquifer mining."